Well the time has come once again to put my Oscar obsessed brain to use and attempt to predict how I think this year’s awards are going to play out. As I always say, nobody knows anything when it comes to award ceremonies, so I could be completely spot on or I could get everything totally wrong…time will tell…so here we go!

BEST PICTURE

Amour

Argo WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN

Beasts Of The Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Misérables

Life Of Pi

Lincoln COULD WIN

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

*Please note, due to my procrastination, I started writing this post about 3 weeks ago…I now realise I am not alone in my Argo prediction, and it’s not so bold anymore…but hey 3 weeks ago it was!*

Screw it. I’ve changed my mind. I’m going all out here and putting my immaculate prediction reputation on the line…my pick to win goes to…Argo! I think it has the tidal wave of support to get it across the line, especially after the enormous amount of shock expressed by the entire film community over Ben’s snub. I think the voters will right their wrong and vote in droves for it to win Best Picture. I’m probably completely wrong and they’re still going to go with the safe option of Lincoln, but I’m gutsy enough to make a bold prediction this year. It should win, it will win, I smell the upset. After the Globes and SAG Awards, everyone is now predicting Argo, so maybe it’s not an upset at all, but rather just a shift in tide? Whatever the case, I hold my head high in predicting Argo much earlier than a lot of other supposed experts…yes I sound like a pompous arsehole, but smelling an upset this early in the game is somewhat of an achievement when it comes to Oscar!

*Below is what I had written before I changed my mind…it doesn’t hold true anymore, but if Lincoln wins, at least I can say “Hey I was totally on board once upon a time!” so I’ll keep it in the post. It’s too much writing/work to just delete, so please enjoy a trip into where my mind was 4 weeks ago…*

Y’all should know by now how much I love Argo, so it should come as no surprise that it’s my pick for which film should win. Even though Ben was shamefully snubbed, I’m still holding on to the faint hope that it has a chance to be a surprise winner. I mean, it’s not as if the Academy completely ignored it, so there is clearly some love there…but probably not enough. I don’t think anything can stop the epic that is Lincoln. As if it wasn’t enough that it contained stellar performances from a stellar director, but when you add in the remarkable and surprising box office success, that just knocks it out of the ballpark. The only thing that could stop it is Silver Linings Playbook. It reminds me of Titanic vs As Good As It Gets a few years ago – the big box office colossus (ok Titanic’s numbers were a wee bit bigger but still…) vs the little quaint comedy that could. The huge number of nominations for SLP shows how much love there is, especially nominating all four actors, so who knows what could happen. If the awards start falling SLP’s way, you’ll know we’re in for a shock. Theoretically, it still could even still (and maybe even should) go to Life Of Pi or Les Misérables, so this is by far the most interesting horse race this year, and that’s a damn rarity these days.

BEST DIRECTOR

Michael Haneke – Armour

Ang Lee – Life Of Pi COULD WIN

David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg – Lincoln WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN

Benh Zeitlin – Beasts Of The Southern Wild

Director is normally so easy to pick, because it pretty much always follows the pre-cursor awards, but Ben’s been winning all those, so who the hell knows what’s going to happen on Oscar night? I’ll give it a shot. Steven. Spielberg. Enough said really. I don’t think anyone else even comes close this year. Maybe they’ll pull a shocker and give it to underdogs Haneke or Zeitlin but I highly, highly doubt it. Without Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck, Spielberg has no real competition to contend with this year. He does deserve it, even just for the enormous amount of great work he’s done since the last time he won, so I’m happy. He’s my idol and I’ll be happy to see him take another trophy home. If not Steven, I’d have to go with Ang Lee. My pick for SHOULD WIN would’ve gone to Affleck but alas…

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables COULD WIN

Daniel Day Lewis – Lincoln WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN

Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Denzel Washington – Flight

I don’t see this going any other way, I really don’t. The biggest lock of the night by far. For starters, Oscar loves to make history, and giving Daniel a third Best Actor trophy puts him in the company of people like Meryl and Jack and Katharine so I don’t think they’ll be able to resist that. Not that he doesn’t deserve it as well, as his performance in/as Lincoln is another mighty triumph in his amazing career. I feel bad for Hugh Jackman, because he really gives the performance of his career in Les Misérables, and whether you like the film or not, you can’t deny he is a powerhouse. He’s probably the only one with a shot to take out a surprise win. Likewise with Bradley Cooper – who knows if he’ll get to play a character like this again, so it’s a shame he has no real hope. He is astonishingly good in SLP, and I would love to see him well as well. I guess he’s now proven he’s got the goods, so hopefully similar roles fall his way from now on.

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook WILL WIN

Emmanuelle Riva – Amour COULD WIN

Quvenshane Wallis – Beasts Of The Southern Wild

Naomi Watts – The Impossible SHOULD WIN

I have changed my mind on this category twenty times now and at one point I’ve had all 5 females as my pick for who will win. This is by far the most wide open race, despite what you might read. Any of the five women could win this, they really could, so this is a tough one to predict. I know Jennifer Lawrence has picked up most of the pre-cursor awards, but I’m still not hugely confident in my pick here. For some reason I just cannot picture her holding the Oscar? I don’t know if it’s her age or the disastrous SNL appearance or her inability to give a genuine sounding acceptance speech (ok she got better at the SAG Awards), but she is wonderful in SJP so I think she might have it. Playing crazy usually equals Oscar gold. Jessica Chastain is the one winning all the awards that Lawrence doesn’t take out, theoretically making it a two-horse race, but I think the Zero Dark Thirty torture controversy madness has essentially ended her campaign. Add to that Bigelow’s snub and it doesn’t really equal her winning. Shame, because she’s marvelous in it. Her time will come, she’s fucking fabulous. The only major shocker I can see happening is Emmanuelle Riva. Once again, Oscar loves to make history and she would be the oldest woman to ever win Best Actress…plus the ceremony is on her freaking birthday! Her performance is pretty damn amazing and the Academy do enjoy the chance to honour performances in foreign films, so she’s certainly the dark horse. It really should be Watts, and hey it still could be, but I get the feeling her time will probably come next year for playing Princess Diana.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin – Argo

Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook COULD WIN

Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln WILL WIN

Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained SHOULD WIN

Another theoretically wide open race. All five of these guys have won major awards here and there, which is unusual because the Supporting categories normally consistently go to the same person really early on. Did anyone but Christopher Plummer win last year? What I love about this category is they’re all former winners so someone will become a double winner by the end of the night. I’d love to see it go to Alan Arkin and I’d love even more for it to go to Christoph Waltz (he was a co-lead dammit, not supporting!) but I think they’re going to go with the safe bet of Tommy Lee Jones. He is great in Lincoln, don’t get me wrong, but frankly I wasn’t really that impressed like I was with De Niro, Arkin and Waltz. Tommy’s not the most likable guy, and that can often work against you at Oscar time, so maybe they’ll go for one of the others?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams – The Master

Sally Field – Lincoln COULD WIN

Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN

Helen Hunt – The Sessions

Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

The second biggest lock of the night – Anne Hathaway has practically been the front-runner here since she was bloody cast in the film. Her performance, while brief, is a triumph and she truly deserves to win. T’is a shame for Sally Field, as she is equally as brilliant as the loose cannon Mary Todd Lincoln, and any other year she probably would have been a shoe-in, but she’s got two already so I’m sure she doesn’t feel too bad. Ugh Amy Adam what is it going to take to get you a damn Oscar?! Amazingly this is her FOURTH Best Supporting Actress nomination in just six years, so you have to feel for her that she just can’t get over the line and take one home. If she nails the upcoming Janis Joplin biopic, maybe that’ll do it for her? And kudos to Jacki Weaver for her second nomination in three years. What a star. Oh hi Helen Hunt, welcome back…

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Brave COULD WIN

Frankenweenie SHOULD WIN

ParaNorman

Pirates: Band Of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph WILL WIN

Now normally this is a relatively easy category to pick, but frankly I have no idea this year.  Generally my gut would tell me to go with Pixar, and I know that’s the way the Globes went, but it doesn’t feel like a Pixar year.  I have the smallest of inklings that it’s going Ralph’s way after his Annie Awards sweep, and so it should. Wreck-It Ralph was by far the most entertaining out of the 5 nominees and a brilliantly animated film. I would really prefer to see it go to Frankenweenie, purely because it’s the most original and heck maybe they will, just so Tim Burton can finally win an Oscar! ParaNorman and Pirates are just lucky to be in the company of such Disney greatness so they’ve got no hope. It’s a tight 3-way race, but no matter what happens Disney wins so I’m happy.

Well there you have it, kids. I’d give predictions for the other 20-odd awards, but I don’t particularly care who wins Best Sound Effects Editing (isn’t it alway just the loudest film anyway?) so that’ll do. Now to see how spot on or how way off I was…see you February 25!