18 Sep Predictions for the 69th Primetime Emmy Awards

Okay, okay. This site is really meant to be about films, but you should all know by now I love an awards show. And you know I love to prognosticate how awards shows are going to go down. It’s too tempting not to throw my hat into the Emmy Awards ring.

But know this – I am utterly, utterly useless at predicting the Emmy Awards. The fine folks at Gold Derby kindly sent me an email this week with my results for the last three years. Yeah, it wasn’t nice to see 48%, 47% and 52% as the sad figures next to my name.

But hey. Maybe this is my year for some redemption, so let’s give it a crack with my final predictions for the 69th Primetime Emmy Awards.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul
The Crown
The Handmaid’s Tale
House of Cards
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld

Will win: The Handmaid’s Tale
Should win: The Handmaid’s Tale
Possible shocker: This Is Us

With reigning champ Game of Thrones ineligible this year, we have a wide-open race here. Honestly, flip a coin. Other than House of Cards (which really shouldn’t be here), it could be any of these shows taking it out. It’s likely a three-horse race between The Crown, The Handmaid’s Tale and Stranger Things, so I’ll go with the one show that’s much more timely and relevant. But don’t be surprised to see the massively popular This Is Us steal it away from all of them.

BEST COMEDY SERIES
Atlanta
Black-ish
Master of None
Modern Family
Silicon Valley
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep

Will win: Veep
Should win: Atlanta
Possible shocker: Black-ish

It may have lost some of its hilarity, given its once-absurd political comedy has become far too real lately, but that shouldn’t stop Veep from winning for the third time. In saying that, a lot of voters get tired of the same show winning again and again, so my shocker of Black-ish or even Atlanta could be on the cards.

BEST LIMITED SERIES
Big Little Lies
Fargo
Feud: Bette and Joan
Genius
The Night Of

Will win: Big Little Lies
Should win: The Night Of
Possible shocker: Fargo

I devoured every single one of these limited series, and I love them all deeply. Picking just one is painfully tough. When it aired, Big Little Lies seemed to get the most buzz out of all of them, so I think it’ll surge ahead. But don’t get surprised to see any of these nominees spoil Nicole and Reece’s party.

BEST TV MOVIE
Black Mirror: “San Junipero”
Dolly Parton’s Christmas of Many Colors
The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks
Sherlock: “The Lying Detective” 
The Wizard of Lies

Will win: Black Mirror: “San Junipero”
Should win: Black Mirror: “San Junipero”
Possible shocker: Sherlock: “The Lying Detective” 

Probably one of the weakest categories all night. Honestly, how is that Dolly Parton thing nominated?! Let’s just go with Black Mirror because it’s the most original of all the nominees. It’ll probably be Sherlock, since Emmy voters have some bizarre love for that show.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Anthony Hopkins, Westworld
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us

Will win: Sterling K. Brown
Should win: Bob Odenkirk
Possible shocker: Anthony Hopkins

If they don’t award This Is Us with the Drama prize, they’ll look to award it elsewhere, so Brown is a total lock here. The only thing working against him is his win for The People Vs. OJ Simpson last year. But unlike the Oscars, successive wins are common at the Emmys, so he should be safe. If there’s a split vote between Brown and co-star Ventimiglia, don’t be surprised to see Hopkins swoop in. The Emmys love to award big film stars, especially Oscar-winning ones.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Claire Foy, The Crown
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Keri Russell, The Americans
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld
Robin Wright, House of Cards

Will win: Elisabeth Moss
Should win: Elisabeth Moss
Possible shocker: Robin Wright

Despite SIX nominations, Moss shamefully never won for her sublime work on Mad Men, so it looks like that will finally be rectified. And rightfully so. She is magnificent on The Handmaid’s Tale. Never discount the British threat though (how many times did they give it to Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey?), so Foy could be a spoiler here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
David Harbour, Stranger Things
Ron Cephas Jones, This Is Us
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
John Lithgow, The Crown
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Jeffrey Wright, Westworld

Will win: John Lithgow
Should win: John Lithgow
Possible shocker: Ron Cephas Jones

I can’t see anybody but Lithgow winning this, unless they go really This Is Us crazy and give it to Jones. Safest bet of the night…oh, that’ll come back to haunt me.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale

Will win: Chrissy Metz
Should win: Ann Dowd
Possible shocker: Uzo Aduba

One of the toughest categories of the night, with three very strong contenders in Metz, Brown and Newton. My head says Newton, but I’m going with Metz, in a win reminiscent of Camryn Manheim’s win in 1998 for The Practice. If the three split the vote, expect Aduba to take home her third trophy.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Zach Galifianakis, Baskets
Donald Glover, Atlanta
William H. Macy, Shameless
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Will win: Donald Glover
Should win: Donald Glover
Possible shocker: Anthony Anderson

With Transparent missing out on a nom in the Comedy Series category, it doesn’t look good for Tambor to repeat for a third time. This is Glover’s year, and rightly so. Then again, Anderson did some remarkable work this year, so don’t count him out completely.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Jane Fonda, Grace and Frankie
Allison Janney, Mom
Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Should win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Possible shocker: Tracee Ellis Ross

It’s hard to go pass Louis-Dreyfus, aka the Queen of Television. If she takes this, she will win her sixth for Veep and hold the record for the most wins by a performer for the same role in the same series. It will also be her eighth overall, and that ties her with Cloris Leachman for the most wins for acting. The chance to reach those milestones is too good to refuse. If anyone can stop her, it’ll be Ross.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Louie Anderson, Baskets
Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Tony Hale, Veep
Matt Walsh, Veep

Will win: Alec Baldwin
Should win: Alec Baldwin
Possible shocker: Tituss Burgess

Nobody but Baldwin is winning this. Keep an eye on Trump’s Twitter to see how he responds. You just know he won’t be able to bite his tongue.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Vanessa Bayer, Saturday Night Live
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Kathryn Hahn, Transparent
Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live
Judith Light, Transparent
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live

Will win: Kate McKinnon
Should win: Kate McKinnon
Possible shocker: Anna Chlumsky

SNL’s other MVP this season has this in the bag too. McKinnon is taking this for the second year in a row.

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: “The Lying Detective”
Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies
Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Geoffrey Rush, Genius
John Turturro, The Night Of

Will win: Riz Ahmed
Should win: Riz Ahmed
Possible shocker: Benedict Cumberbatch

The smart pick here would be De Niro, given its his first ever Emmy nomination. ANd, as I said earlier, the Emmys love an Oscar-winner. Maybe it’s my admiration of Ahmed that’s clouding my judgement here. He truly deserves it and I genuinely hope they agree. His character transformation on The Night Of was astoundingly good, plus he’s riding high after a stellar year of buzz, so it should be his night.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Carrie Coon, Fargo
Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette and Joan
Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette and Joan
Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies

Will win: Nicole Kidman
Should win: Jessica Lange
Possible shocker: Carrie Coon

By far, the hardest category to call. How you split these six glorious ladies and pick just one is beyond me. They genuinely all should be winning. You’ve got FOUR Oscar winners in this category plus an Oscar nominee and the criminally-underrated Coon. Seriously, just call it a six-way tie, please. The advantage probably lies with Kidman, in what is the most challenging and difficult performance of the bunch. It doesn’t matter who wins here. Any of them will be a great choice.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Bill Camp, The Night Of
Alfred Molina, Feud: Bette and Joan
Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies
David Thewlis, Fargo
Stanley Tucci, Feud: Bette and Joan
Michael Kenneth Williams, The Night Of

Will win: Alexander Skarsgard
Should win: Stanley Tucci
Possible shocker: David Thewlis

It’s hard to go past Skarsgard. As despicable as his character was, he gives a wonderful performance. Villains often take home prizes, so this seems the most likely, given the two Feud men probably split their votes. This category often throws up a massive surprise, so don’t be shocked to see Thewlis or Camp hear their name called.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Judy Davis, Feud: Bette and Joan
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Jackie Hoffman, Feud: Bette and Joan
Regina King, American Crime
Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies
Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies

Will win: Laura Dern
Should win: Jackie Hoffman
Possible shocker: Regina King

I’ll be rooting for Hoffman, who practically steals the entire Feud show, but Dern has the meatier role and she’s beloved by the industry, so this will be hers. She’s lost five times before, so that’s another tick in her favour. Again, this category often throws up a curveball, so they really all have a chance here.

I’m not going to bother going into great detail with the other awards, so I’ll just run through the rest of my predictions without notes.

BEST DRAMA WRITING
The Handmaid’s Tale

BEST DRAMA DIRECTING
The Handmaid’s Tale

BEST COMEDY WRITING
Master of None

BEST COMEDY DIRECTING
Atlanta

BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE WRITING
Big Little Lies

BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE DIRECTING
Big Little Lies

BEST REALITY COMPETITION
RuPaul’s Drag Race

BEST VARIETY TALK SHOW
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
Saturday Night Live

BEST VARIETY SERIES WRITING
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

BEST VARIETY SERIES DIRECTING
Saturday Night Live

 

 

As I said, I’m woeful at predicting this ceremony, so I’m probably totally wrong with more than half of these. Let’s see how pitiful I do this year! Bring on the ceremony!